Douglas Roche, Edmonton

The re-election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, traumatic as it is, does not spell the end of our search for a world where social justice guides public policies. A shift of such magnitude as revealed in the U.N. Charter, Vatican II’s Constitution on the Church in the Modern World, and the more recently formulated U.N. Pact of the Future cannot be expected to be completed in one’s lifetime or perhaps even within a century. Although Trump’s magnetic arrogance clouds this moment, there are slivers of light piercing through the cybersphere that sustain hope that humanity’s long journey from a culture of war to a culture of peace can be sustained.

In considering the state of humanity, not to mention our jangling nerves every time Trump ups the ante on “Make America Great Again,” we have to counter the news of the day by playing for the long run.

It does a great disservice to the human ability to think to succumb to the manipulation of the media, which would have us believe that Trump’s incantations of “America First” reflect a dominant public opinion that cannot be stopped. So let us stand back for a moment and cast a clear eye on the present scene.

To begin with, the idea that Trump won a “landslide” in the 2024 U.S. election is a myth. He won 49.9 percent of the popular vote; Kamala Harris received 48.3 percent. This was one of the smallest popular vote victories ever in the U.S., despite the fact that Trump carried all the battleground states. Moreover, the Republican majorities in the House and Senate will be among the narrowest in modern American history. So the notion that Trumpism “dominates” the American political landslide is fanciful. Nonetheless, he will legitimately enter the White House and the rest of the world will be affected.

It cannot be denied that Trump’s influence will determine the timing of the end of the Ukraine War and the fate of the people of Gaza. The millions of undocumented migrants in the U.S., most of them now terrified, will certainly be affected. U.S. defence spending, now greater than that of the next ten countries combined, will doubtless rise, and the military-industrial complex will celebrate Christmas every week.

But the days of the U.S. being the lone superpower in the world are long gone. Do not misunderstand: the U.S. remains a very powerful country (as Canada, trying to figure out how Trump will affect trade relations with the U.S., worries every day), but the emergence of new players on the international scene makes 2025 a very different landscape than 1989, when the fall of the Berlin wall and the end of the Cold War magnified the importance of America.

There is, first of all, the emergence of China. China’s rise from a poor developing country to a major economic power in about four decades has been spectacular. Though still behind the U.S. as an economic superpower, China’s “belt and road” initiative has established economic ties to developing countries, enabling it to control the development of critical minerals and resources. Its influence in the world is clearly growing.

Second, several years ago, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa banded together into an organization called BRICS intended to rival the dominance of the U.S. dollar and generally become an alternative to Western dominated financial institutions. Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates later joined the BRICs and several other countries are lining up to join. The organization wants to stimulate trade through a common currency. This is already lessening American influence over world transactions.

Third, Africa has the fastest growing, youngest population of any continent and by 2050 will contain 2.5 billion people. One in four people on the planet will be African. American influence is already in decline. In Niger and Chad, military cooperation with the U.S. has been withdrawn, marking a broader shift in the region away from Western nations and towards Russia and China.

China, the BRICS and Africa are just some examples of the relative decline in influence exerted by the U.S. As we look out to the horizon, we can already see an America challenged by new entities that were unforeseen even a few decades ago. If Trump were realistic about making America great again, he would be reaching out to make new alliances with new formations of people instead of alienating them. Instead, he castigates that which he does not know. His disdain for the whole Muslim population of the world, his casual dismissal of the people of Puerto Rica, his general disregard for most of the developing world all show an Xenophobia that dominates his decision-making.

At the very moment the world community has recognized that the existential threats of climate change, nuclear weapons, pandemics and forced migrations of people challenge world stability and therefore must be countered by joint action, Trump has decided to go it alone. He is out of step with the march of history.

He will undoubtedly try to dominate world institutions — he has already made NATO kneel to him — but his bigotry and short-sightedness, while appealing to the lower end of the American fabric, counter America’s well-being. World institutions are evolving and will not in the future be so dependent on American goodwill or as susceptible to American influence. In an unintended way, Trump is actually contributing to the maturation of the rest of the world , which is discovering it can move to its own drummer, not the American bugle.

The evolving world — sans Trump — brings us to the present state of the United Nations. Nothing so tragically demonstrates the power the U.S. has in the U.N. than the recent American veto of a Security Council resolution that demanded an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The other fourteen states on the Security Council voted for the comprehensive resolution, but the Biden administration, determined to continue backing Israel no matter the cost, cast a singular veto. All five permanent members of the Security Council — the U.S., Russia, the U.K., France and China — possess the right of veto, so this is by no means an exclusive American right. But every time it is used — and the Gaza vote was particularly egregious — the demand for Security Council reform rises.

It must be said that without the extraordinary vision of the American president at the time, Franklin D. Roosevelt, the UN would never have been born. Roosevelt sold the idea of a permanent body of states to avert future wars to his war-time allies, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet Premier Josef Stalin. The US committed to paying 25 percent (later changed to 22 percent) of the UN’s bills, by far the largest proportion of any state. This gave the US too much continuing power, both in the setting of UN policy and the administration of the far-flung enterprise.

During the 1980s, with the right-wing starting to gain more political power in the US, American public support of the UN weakened, and then the administration began demanding policies more to the benefit of the US than the world as a whole. From time to time, financial reforms of the UN were attempted, but to this day American power and influence at the UN remain disproportionately high.

This is a very dangerous situation for the UN to be in, now that Trump has returned to power. He disparaged the UN in his first term and has not shown any signs of respect for the international body as he commences his second. China, on the other hand, plays an important role at the UN. Seeing the UN as a tool to implement its global ambitions, China’s influence at the UN is growing. Trump’s indifference, when he is not outright hostile, will play into China’s hands. The diminishment of US influence in the world will diminish, especially as new partnerships take hold.

Much of the changing relationship of the US to the rest of the world is to be determined, but Trump’s return has already set in motion the possibility of serious realignments of world institutions. It is easily foreseen that Western dominance of the world will decline. And that is a good thing. For it is Western dominance that brought colonialism, militarization and gross economic disparities to the world.

It is never wise to bet against the United States: the dynamic inventiveness that has characterized US history is still strong. But US strongman tactics, grossly magnified by Trump, may ironically finally produce a world reaction in which a number of countries step up to forge a new cooperative spirit in the international community.

The international voice for change — real action to stop global warming, drastic cuts in nuclear arsenals, a more equitable distribution of wealth — may finally be heard in the clamorous world. The rise and fall of Donald Trump may yet prove to be a stepping stone to a better world. That is a reason to maintain hope in the dark Trumpian years.